Publication of critical metal supply risks assessment in the transition to clean energy by Professor Jiashuo Li

Recently, Professor Jiashuo Li’s team from the Institute of Blue and Green Development at Shandong University (Weihai), in collaboration with the University of Maryland, Northeastern University, and the Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, has made progress in assessing the supply risks of critical metals in the context of China's transition to clean energy. The article "Assessing the Supply Risks of Critical Metals in China's Low-Carbon Energy Transition" has been published in Global Environmental Change. Professor Jiashuo Li is the corresponding author, with doctoral student Pengfei Yuan and postdoctoral fellow Dan Li as co-first authors.
The unprecedented low-carbon energy transition has heightened concerns about the security of critical metals (CMs) supplies that are essential for clean energy technologies. As the world's largest consumer and importer, China's CMs supply may face significant challenges due to geopolitical uncertainties, price volatility, and other dynamics. This study introduces a risk-modeling framework to holistically gauge the multifaceted supply risks for 30 CMs embedded in clean energy technology spanning from 2008 to 2020. The analysis indicates that approximately one-third of CMs supplies grapple with elevated risk, and half of these CMs are associated with electric vehicle manufacturing. These risks stem mainly from significant disruption potential (e.g., lithium and palladium) and substantial import reliance (e.g., nickel and niobium). Although China's overall CMs supply risk has remained relatively stable, the nation has grown increasingly susceptible to disruptions, especially with the surge in clean energy initiatives and associated price hikes. A detailed analysis of the risk comparison reveals that China's supply risk for nine metals (e.g., copper and chromium) exceeds that of other countries that consume large amounts of CMs. Therefore, by adopting focused strategies related to metals, both governments and industries could benefit from global partnerships, strategic stockpiling, early warning mechanisms and sustainable supply chain management, paving the way for a smooth low -carbon energy transition for China.

Figure 1: Multidimensional Supply Risks of Critical Metals in China
This research was jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and other projects.
Original article link: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959378024000293?dgcid=author